Oklahoma State Football: Why the Cowboys Can Win the Big 12 in 2026

Oklahoma State Is Almost Unrecognizable

There may not be another team in college football that underwent a more dramatic transformation entering 2026 than Oklahoma State. After a disastrous 1–11 season and the end of Mike Gundy's more than 20-year run as head coach, the Cowboys didn't simply hire Eric Morris and make a few changes. They essentially hit the reset button on the entire program. Oklahoma State brought in 92 new players and more than 40 new staff members, creating a roster and coaching operation that looked almost nothing like the one that had finished the previous season. The 92 newcomers are believed to be the most ever on one major college football roster, while 66 of them came through the transfer portal.

The change went far beyond the number of names on the roster. Morris brought much of the infrastructure that helped him build North Texas into a 12-win team, including members of his coaching and strength staffs. He also brought 17 players who had previously played for him at North Texas, including quarterback Drew Mestemaker, running back Caleb Hawkins and wide receiver Wyatt Young. Mestemaker had led the FBS in passing the previous season, while Hawkins had been one of the nation's most productive running backs. This wasn't a coach walking into Stillwater and trying to figure out what he had. Morris brought an entirely new football operation with him.

And that's what makes the 2026 Oklahoma State story so fascinating. This is the first full season without Mike Gundy since 2004, but it isn't simply the beginning of the post-Gundy era. It is the beginning of something almost completely separate from it. The Cowboys had to learn a new system, develop relationships with an enormous number of new teammates and establish a culture under a coach whose previous players already understood exactly what he expected. Morris was effectively asking Oklahoma State to become his program almost overnight.

Tulsa Played a Team Still Finding Itself

The Tulsa game was ugly, and there is no reason to pretend otherwise. Oklahoma State lost 24-10 in Eric Morris' debut, but the circumstances surrounding that loss are important. The Cowboys were putting 92 newcomers on the field, with only two of their 22 offensive and defensive starters having played for Oklahoma State the previous season. They were learning a new system, learning new teammates and trying to establish an identity almost overnight. The growing pains were obvious. Oklahoma State lost two fumbles, threw two interceptions and turned the ball over on downs three times, while four drives reached Tulsa territory without producing points. Starting left tackle Jacob Sexton also suffered a leg injury just five offensive plays into the game, leaving a completely rebuilt offense without one of its most important pieces.

That doesn't excuse losing to Tulsa. It explains it. This was a team that had barely had time to become a team. Morris had completely rebuilt the roster and coaching staff, and expecting everything to click immediately was unrealistic. Even the defense did enough to keep Oklahoma State competitive, holding Tulsa to just 1-of-11 on third down. The problem was that the Cowboys couldn't consistently capitalize on their opportunities.

Oklahoma State wasn't broken in when they played Tulsa. It was unfinished.

Then Came Oregon

One week later, Oklahoma State gave us the answer to whether Tulsa was a warning sign or simply the first chapter of a rebuild. The Cowboys hosted No. 6 Oregon and didn't just squeak out an upset—they outplayed the Ducks for much of the afternoon, rolling up 554 yards of total offense to Oregon's 281 and winning 39-31. Drew Mestemaker, who had struggled in his Oklahoma State debut, responded with 317 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and 109 rushing yards, including the go-ahead 10-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

That performance completely changed the conversation. Oklahoma State had gone from losing to Tulsa by two touchdowns to beating a top-six Oregon team the following week, and the difference wasn't simply a couple of lucky breaks. The Cowboys moved the ball, controlled the game and found answers against one of the most talented teams on their schedule. Mestemaker's response was particularly important because it showed that the Tulsa performance wasn't necessarily who this offense was. The team that was still trying to figure itself out in Week 1 had started to find itself by Week 2.

Tulsa was the growing pain. Oregon was the proof of concept.

Oklahoma State Football Has Already Found It

After shocking No. 6 Oregon, Oklahoma State had an opportunity to let the momentum disappear against Murray State. Instead, the Cowboys handled business. Oklahoma State jumped out to a 31-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 59-0 shutout, scoring on its first five possessions and holding Murray State to just 160 total yards. It wasn't the type of victory that changes the national perception of a team, but it mattered because Oklahoma State didn't overlook the opponent or allow the emotional high of beating Oregon to become a letdown.

Then came West Virginia, and this is where the Oklahoma State argument really starts to become serious. The Cowboys fell behind 14-3 in Morgantown but completely flipped the game in the second half, outscoring the Mountaineers 28-10 on their way to a 41-24 victory. Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns as Oklahoma State piled up 609 yards of offense. More importantly, this was Oklahoma State's first Big 12 road win since November 18, 2023, ending an 18-game conference losing streak. The Cowboys didn't simply survive their first conference test. They went on the road, fell behind and responded.

Tulsa showed us a team still finding itself. Oregon showed us what that team could become. Murray State showed us it could handle success. West Virginia showed us Oklahoma State could take all of that into the Big 12 and win on the road.

The Big 12 Doesn't Have a True Powerhouse

This is where the Oklahoma State argument gets really interesting. The Cowboys wouldn't be nearly as compelling a championship pick if they were trying to climb over an obvious juggernaut. But the Big 12 doesn't appear to have that kind of team this season. There are good teams throughout the conference, and several programs have legitimate championship aspirations, but there isn't a clear-cut heavyweight that has separated itself from everyone else.

Texas Tech entered the season with the strongest preseason argument after winning the 2025 Big 12 Championship, while BYU, Utah, Arizona State, Kansas State and others had reasons to believe they could compete. That's a crowded field, but it's also an opportunity. Oklahoma State doesn't need to prove it is overwhelmingly better than the conference. It needs to prove it can consistently navigate a conference where almost everyone has a path to beating everyone else.

That distinction matters. In a league without a dominant team, development can be more important than preseason expectations. A team that gets significantly better from September into November can pass teams that entered the season ahead of it. And after what we've already seen from Oklahoma State, there is a legitimate argument that the Cowboys are consistently improving.

There Is a Lot of Opportunity in Front of Oklahoma State

The Cowboys aren't being asked to repeat the impossible every Saturday. The Oregon victory already gave them the signature win they needed to prove their ceiling is legitimate. The West Virginia victory showed they can take that level of play into conference competition. Now the challenge is turning those performances into a sustained run.

That's where the timing of this rebuild becomes so important. Oklahoma State didn't enter 2026 as a finished product, but it may not need to be one yet. The roster has already begun to come together, the offense has developed confidence and Morris has a team that appears to be responding to his system. The Big 12 is giving Oklahoma State something most first-year coaches don't get: an opening.

The Cowboys don't have to be perfect. They have to take advantage of the opportunities that are sitting in front of them.

Drew Mestemaker Gives Oklahoma State a Different Ceiling

Mestemaker may ultimately be the biggest reason this prediction isn't simply a fun underdog story. A first-year coach taking over a 1–11 program normally means years of rebuilding at the quarterback position. Oklahoma State skipped that part of the process by bringing in a quarterback who already knows Morris' system and has already demonstrated that he can produce at a high level.

The early results are difficult to ignore. After struggling against Tulsa, Mestemaker responded against Oregon and then followed that performance with another massive game against West Virginia. He isn't being asked to learn everything from scratch while simultaneously carrying an inexperienced roster. He already knows the offense, already knows the coach and is surrounded by several players who made the same transition from North Texas. That familiarity could become one of Oklahoma State's biggest advantages as the season gets deeper.

Eric Morris Has Already Changed the Conversation

None of this happens without Morris. The easiest thing for Oklahoma State to do after going 1–11 would have been to bring in a coach who tried to stabilize the program before worrying about anything bigger. Morris took the opposite approach. He completely rebuilt the roster, imported his system and trusted players who had already experienced success with him at North Texas.

That approach came with obvious risk, and Tulsa immediately exposed it. But Morris deserves credit for how quickly the team responded. Oklahoma State didn't spend weeks looking like the same broken program that went 1–11. It beat Oregon, destroyed Murray State and won at West Virginia. The turnaround isn't theoretical anymore. It's happening on the field.

The Tulsa Loss Might Be More Important Than We Think

Ironically, the loss that initially made Oklahoma State look the least convincing may end up being one of the most important games of the season. Tulsa exposed the problems that come with completely rebuilding a roster: communication, consistency, protection, turnovers and an offense that hadn't yet developed chemistry.

But Oklahoma State didn't stay there.

That's the distinction between a team that has genuinely changed and one that simply catches a good result. The Cowboys were able to identify what wasn't working and improve almost immediately. The Tulsa loss showed us the starting point. The games that followed showed us the progression. When evaluating whether Oklahoma State can win the Big 12, that progression is more meaningful than pretending the first game never happened.

So Why Not Oklahoma State?

There are still plenty of reasons to be skeptical. This remains an extraordinarily new roster, and sustaining this level of play over an entire Big 12 schedule is much different than producing a few impressive performances. Eventually, Oklahoma State will have to deal with injuries, adversity and teams that have had months to prepare specifically for what Morris is doing.

But every championship prediction comes with questions. The difference is whether the potential answers are already visible. With Oklahoma State, they are. The Cowboys have a quarterback capable of taking over games, a coach who has already proven he can build an offense, a roster full of experienced transfers and, perhaps most importantly, a conference that doesn't have an unbeatable team standing in their way.

There is a path. And it's much wider than it looked a month ago.

We're Picking Oklahoma State to Win the Big 12

A year ago, predicting Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 would have sounded absurd. The Cowboys went 1–11, didn't win a conference game and moved on from the most recognizable coach in program history. Then Eric Morris arrived and did something that almost nobody expected: he rebuilt the entire operation in one offseason and immediately produced a team capable of beating No. 6 Oregon and winning a Big 12 road game.

That doesn't mean Oklahoma State is guaranteed to win the conference. It means the opportunity is real. The Big 12 doesn't have a runaway powerhouse, Oklahoma State has already demonstrated a ceiling high enough to beat elite competition and the Cowboys appear to be improving rather than simply surviving.

So I'm planting the flag. Oklahoma State is going to win the Big 12.

Maybe that prediction looks ridiculous by November. Maybe the Cowboys eventually run into a team that exposes the weaknesses still hiding beneath this massive rebuild. But right now, there is a compelling reason to believe that Oklahoma State isn't simply the surprise team of 2026. They might be the team nobody saw coming until it was too late.